According to the latest news today, Harris and Trump, the presidential candidates of the two major parties in the United States, decided to hold a debate on ABC on September 10. Some time ago, Biden announced his withdrawal from the election due to poor performance and abandonment by the sponsor, and Harris took over as the Democratic candidate. This debate was originally agreed by Trump and Biden. After Harris took over, Trump had been reluctant to shirk his responsibility, and finally agreed to participate in the debate on September 10 this Thursday, August 8.

Trump said at a press conference that he might have two additional debates with Harris: one will be held by Fox News on September 4, and the other will be held by NBC News on September 25.

Who has a greater chance of being elected, Trump or Harris?

A poll released by the Wall Street Journal on July 26 showed that Harris almost wiped out Trump's lead and received enthusiastic responses from 81% of supporters (Biden's figure in early July was only 37%). If Harris wins the election, she will set three records at the same time, becoming the first president whose parents are not white, the first female president, and the first Indian-American president.

At present, the question of "who can be elected president" is not as clear as in the past. Due to Biden's worrying physical condition and poor debate performance in the past, public opinion seems to be on Trump's side. However, after Harris took over, the situation became confusing, and some public opinion even directly claimed that Harris was more likely to be elected president. Data from the centralized prediction market platform Polymarket shows that the chances of US Vice President Kamala Harris winning the upcoming presidential election have risen to 49%, exceeding the 48% of former US President Donald Trump.

Compared with Biden, whose intelligence level is questioned, the current presidential candidate Harris has shown positive enthusiasm, and the Democrats have also ignited hopes that they did not have in the past and began to sing Harris' praises. The average of various polls of his national public opinion support rate has also begun to surpass Trump. However, as the campaign enters the stage of "state-by-state competition" in battleground states, Kamala Harris still needs the support of the entire party to get through the destined bumpy time.

Harris's policy style

Compared with Biden, Harris may be more radical in some aspects. In terms of tax proposals, Harris and Trump both support tax cuts, but Harris supports tax cuts for middle- and low-income people, while she hopes to increase taxes on the rich and companies. In terms of exports, Harris opposes trade protectionism and hopes to promote US exports. Specifically:

• Advocate tax cuts for middle- and low-income groups: During the campaign, Harris proposed to provide a $500 monthly tax refund credit for people with incomes below $100,000 to replace the tax cuts implemented by Trump in 2017. This legislative proposal was called the Middle Class Enhancement Act. Analysts say that if the middle class benefits, the consumer sector and small-cap consumer ETFs may benefit.
• Strengthen US exports: Harris has criticized Trump's trade policy and emphasized the need to strengthen US exports. She opposes Trump's tariff plans, saying they will increase consumer spending on items such as gasoline and groceries, affecting middle-class families. If Harris is elected, large US multinational companies and large-cap ETFs may benefit from it. Large multinational companies tend to have a wide global coverage and are export-centric.
• Support clean energy: Similar to Biden, Harris's position on climate and energy policy is particularly clear. A key achievement during Biden's term was the signing of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the largest climate spending bill in US history, which may reduce greenhouse gas emissions to less than 42% of 2005 levels by 2030. As vice president, Harris has supported the Biden administration's climate policies, including the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. She advocated for $20 billion for the EPA Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund to support clean energy development. In addition, Harris emphasized strengthening supervision of oil companies and other polluting companies. She has filed lawsuits against several fossil fuel companies, sued a pipeline company over oil spills, and investigated whether ExxonMobil misled the public on climate change.
• Advocate for housing burden relief: Harris attaches importance to the affordability of American residents. She proposed the Rent Relief Act to provide tax credits for tenants with an annual income of less than $100,000, which may benefit the US real estate industry.
• Be cautious about AI: Harris has said that when government agencies use artificial intelligence tools, they are now required to verify that these tools will not endanger the rights and safety of the American people. Harris met with executives of several leading US technology companies in the first half of the year to discuss some key issues in artificial intelligence. She once said that President Biden "expects companies like yours to ensure the safety of products before providing them to the public."
• Be open to marijuana: Harris has called for changes in marijuana policies and criticized restrictions on it as "ridiculous". She urged the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to revise the current marijuana classification and emphasized the need for quick action and continued efforts to reclassify. If Harris becomes a presidential candidate, US marijuana stocks will benefit.

Market Guide: These are the stocks that may benefit

• New energy industry: New energy vehicle ETFs, renewable energy ETFs, and stocks of some companies engaged in the new energy industry are worth paying attention to. Harris proposed a $10 trillion climate plan to accelerate the United States' transition to a green economy. The plan sets the following goals: zero emissions for all newly sold buses, heavy vehicles, and fleets by 2030; zero emissions for all vehicles by 2035; carbon neutrality for all new buildings by 2030; and carbon neutrality for the power grid by 2030. In addition, Harris plans to stop subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, stop issuing new fossil fuel leases, strengthen federal government supervision to ensure that companies comply with relevant regulations, and implement an incremental fee system for corporate carbon emissions to promote emission reductions.
• Network regulation industry: Cybersecurity ETFs and AI regulatory technology ETFs are worth paying attention to. Harris emphasizes the regulation of artificial intelligence risks and advocates the formulation of relevant regulations, with special attention to issues such as deep fakes, algorithmic bias, and false information. Harris is more active than Biden in calling for regulations to address artificial intelligence risks, focusing on areas such as deep fakes, algorithmic bias, and false information. In addition, Harris has actively promoted civil rights organizations to participate in discussions on artificial intelligence policies to address the potential impact of possible biases and errors in artificial intelligence on vulnerable groups.
• Infrastructure: Real estate stocks, construction engineering ETFs, and material supply ETFs are worth paying attention to. Harris may continue Biden's infrastructure construction plan and increase investment in roads, bridges, public transportation, the Internet and other fields. This will help improve the overall level of domestic infrastructure in the United States and promote economic growth and employment.
• Medical and public health: Medical insurance ETFs, biotech ETFs, and public health ETFs are worth paying attention to. Harris supports the Medicare for All plan and increases investment in public health. Harris supports the "Medicare for All" plan and makes more investments in public health, which will help improve the accessibility and quality of medical services.

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