On the evening of September 10th, 2024 (September 11th, Beijing time), the first televised debate between Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump took place.

The outcome of the debate between the Democrats and Republicans will determine which companies stand to gain. A Republican victory could mean lower corporate taxes and more moderate antitrust regulation, benefiting Wall Street, large tech companies, and others. Conversely, a Democratic win might lead to increased investment in green technology and more disposable income for low-income consumers.

Potential Beneficiaries if the Republicans Win:

Tractor Supply Company

This retail farm and ranch supply chain is expected to benefit from improved consumer confidence in rural communities. A Republican government may continue to support agricultural subsidies and assistance programs, which could boost demand for agricultural equipment, positively impacting Tractor Supply Company.

Goldman Sachs

The Biden-Harris administration has been actively challenging mergers that could harm consumer interests, including the proposed merger between JetBlue and Spirit Airlines, as well as the merger between luxury brands Coach and Michael Kors' parent company. This has created a "chilling effect" on strategic mergers and acquisitions. A Trump victory could lead to a surge in deals, with Goldman Sachs, as a leading M&A bank, likely to benefit. The Republican tendency to reduce financial industry regulations could also benefit Goldman Sachs by lowering compliance costs and providing greater business flexibility, such as fewer regulatory restrictions on transactions and investments.

Tesla

If the Republicans are in power, they might eliminate additional incentives for corporate investment in new green technologies while retaining incentives for projects already underway. This could benefit Tesla, as reduced zero-emission investment by competitors would allow Tesla to capture a larger market share.

Apple

Earlier this year, the Biden-Harris administration's Department of Justice filed an antitrust lawsuit against this iPhone manufacturer, accusing it of overly restrictive control over interactions between its devices and external applications. Investors may anticipate a Republican administration to adopt a more lenient approach to antitrust issues and AI regulation, benefiting Apple as it integrates AI into its popular phones.

AT&T

As a major corporate taxpayer, AT&T would benefit if Republicans follow through on their promise to lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. In contrast, the Democrats have expressed a desire to increase the rate to 28%.

Potential Beneficiaries if the Democrats Win:

Comcast

Democrats are expected to support allowing unlicensed or shared use of newly available wireless spectrum, whereas Republicans favor licensing agreements. This approach could help Comcast expand its growing mobile business.

AppLovin

This company assists software developers in finding ways to monetize their applications. If the Democrats win, AppLovin could emerge as a significant beneficiary.

SunRun

This solar panel installation company is likely to benefit from the Democrats' commitment to clean energy. Democrats are more inclined to invest in green infrastructure and support the development of renewable energy technologies, including wind, solar, and electric vehicles.

KKR

KKR has raised billions in infrastructure funds, which will benefit as the U.S. and other countries transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. A Democratic victory could accelerate this transition.

Five Below

Inflation has severely impacted Five Below's core low-income customers, dragging down the discount retailer's stock price. However, Democratic tax policies could increase these consumers' disposable income while reducing the risk of rising tariffs on Chinese imports, a significant potential headwind for companies reliant on imported goods.

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